mkttimer

What do you do?

Mon, 28 Dec 2009 07:59:59 GMT

"Pop, pop, pop..."

TV and movies have us believing that it sounds like "bang, bang, bang." But, if you listed to eyewitness statements on the news, they say it sounds like "pop, pop, pop."

So, you hear "pop, pop, pop, pop, pop, pop, pop," early on Sunday morning...and your brain hesitates. Actually, it doesn't hesitate, it starts processing VERY quickly. After the first "pop" or two, I had already run through the likely scenarios. Was it someone hammering on something? (There seems to be constant construction around me.) No. Was it someone banging on a car for some reason? No, didn't really sound like that either. Unfortunately, I'm pretty convinced within less than a second that it was gunfire. So, in a split second, I note the time: 2:08 AM. The timepiece I was using may have been one minute fast, so it might have been 2:07. I also start counting the "pops." Seven, definitely seven. So, not a revolver. Some sort of semi-automatic pistol most like.

That was the first few seconds. What do you do then? Maybe I stick my head out the window and see if I can see anything that might be useful to the cops later. But man, that'd be a really stupid way to die. And while I'm not married to the idea of a long life, I'd like to go out with a little more dignity and a lot less drama. Do I call 911? I know it's gunfire. I KNOW it's gunfire. So why do I feel like I'd look stupid reporting something like this while it turns out to be a bunch of kids with fireworks or something? Why's that even an issue?

And why, after a kid was shot in the foot twice about 100 feet from my window am I so ho-hum about it? All I could think when I first heard the news was that anyone I'd shoot at seven times would be dead. I don't know if it says something about me, society, whatever. *sigh*

Nancy Pelosi on health care reform

Thu, 29 Oct 2009 07:26:57 GMT

This is an excerpt from her press release:

"The 10th amendment to the U.S. Constitution states that the powers not delegated to the federal government by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the states, are reserved to the states … or to the people. But the Constitution gives Congress broad power to regulate activities that have an effect on interstate commerce. Congress has used this authority to regulate many aspects of American life, from labor relations to education to health care to agricultural production. Since virtually every aspect of the heath care system has an effect on interstate commerce, the power of Congress to regulate health care is essentially unlimited."

The commerce clause states that:

[The Congress shall have power] To regulate commerce with foreign nations, and among the several states, and with the Indian tribes

That this has been turned into "the power of Congress to regulate health care is essentially unlimited," is utterly disgusting to the spirit of this nation. I understand that this clause had already been warped by decades of Supreme Court decisions. But, her comment still makes me want to vomit.

Usain Bolt

Wed, 14 Oct 2009 07:29:42 GMT

Incredible athlete. Probably one of the top physical specimens in history.

However, I am amazed that this one detail doesn't get more attention. Bolt is 6'5". In racing terms, he's a giant. Michael Johnson (6'1") and Tyson Gay (5'11") - two others past and present whose times Bolt's are often compared to - are considerably shorter. Although I was not able to find any specific measurements, it visually appears that Bolt's legs are even disproportionately longer than his competition's.

The net effect is that when Bolt set his current world record of 9.58 in the 100M, I counted him at 41 steps. By comparison, Gay was at 46.5 steps when he crossed the finish line second. Being able to take more than 10 percent fewer steps is a HUGE advantage, likely insurmountable. Comparatively, Gay finished 40 steps well before Bolt ever crossed the finish line. In Bolt's 14.36 run at 150M, which I consider to be his most impressive performance, I counted him at roughly 60 steps for the entire race. Given that his strides per unit of time still trails that of many of his competitors, it is very likely that he will continue to shave time off his records.

Another consideration that is that Michael Johnson set his world record time in the 400M at the age of 32. Bolt will have nearly a decade of good running to best 19 seconds at the 200M, which I expect him to do.

Origins 2009 - Ticket to Ride Tournament recap

Thu, 02 Jul 2009 04:54:50 GMT

Did not attend Origins 2008, wasn't in the mood at the time (which is saying something since Origins is my idea of heaven on earth).

Six qualifying categories this year:
US
1910
Mega
Europe
Marklin
Nordic/Swiss

Finished first in US, 1910, and Mega on first attempt, didn't finish first in any other of the three maps at first, spawning the "Jerry can only win on US map" mantra that lasts throughout the con. Second in Europe first attempt, 1st on second attempt. Second in Marklin first time (lost to Teagan), dead last with a score of 26 (-34 net in tickets) second time. Amazingly, this beats my train wreck of a Marklin game from two years ago. Three years after being one of the first to purchase Marklin, I still can't figure out how to win the damn thing.** Later, when I ask what board the playoffs will be, Cheryl jokes that they decided to make the semi-finals Marklin. Haha, nice try. Second in Nordic my first two attempts, read up on it later that night, finished 1st on third attempt but versus two newbies. Qualified first overall with five 1sts and a 2nd. Dan is 2nd (I believe on only four or five qualifying games, an impressive accomplishment), I believe Colleen 3rd.

One qualifying game on the US map was against David Platnick, who starts with an early "so you have to take him (pointing at me) down because of blah, blah, blah" comment, which drives me nuts. Dude, this ain't Puerto Rico. I get some degree of satisfaction when near the end; he plays his random six (purple) on Winnipeg-Sault St Marie. This forces me to play my random six (black) on Los Angeles-El Paso. This conveniently blocks the six black he is holding in his hand as well as two of his tickets, knocking him out of first and way into last. In hindsight, I probably WOULD have played LA-EP anyway had he put his purple on Duluth-Toronto, but he literally forced me into it. Turns out he could have played LA-EP one turn earlier...but then I could have as well still beating him by a turn. So, it all turned out to be a wash.

A high qualifying position turns out to be useful as the top five seeds automatically get to go first in the first round of playoff games. Five tables, regular US map, 4er. Cheryl, Jeanette, Zach fill my table. Zach is sitting to my right, so I do not ask for random seating as the other two are mighty experienced (Cheryl won last year and has frequently been in the finals, Jeanette was in the finals last year as well). This is a tough, tough game, by far the hardest of con for me. I use my trains to keep track of colors as they go by, Jeanette jokes that I’m making gang signs. Heh. I end up 1st, Zach 2nd. I don't recall my exact tickets, but LA to Miami via the green-black-red path is what I built (then up to Seattle). Grabbed Houston-NO early and locked those three colors the rest of the game. I ended the game, 140ish, large lead. But, one or two things fall apart and I would have been in big trouble.

They did an interesting thing this year with the format. The five who finished 1st in the opening round faced off in one table, the five who finished 2nd faced off at the other semifinal. Three players from the first table and two players from the second table advance to the final table. Requiring a first place finish to advance promotes risky play (the "I either finish first or last" strategy) so this is a better gauge of skill.

Semifinal is 5er Europe. Uh oh. Opening ticket is Edinburgh to Athina, so my plan is to just connect it and two more of my small tickets (Brest, Paris, and Wein were some of my cities), build a lot of the four and six routes to end fast and finish 2nd. I go first again, Michael, (forgot), Bruce, Katie sit around me. Locomotives are thin in my draw, and I eventually have to give up on the six-route ferry. Bruce gets up there in tickets, so I take the green Sochi route at the Eastern end to mess with him (turns out to be my only pure reactive block of the entire weekend). Michael blocks me at one point to break up my longest train, but I think that hurt him more than helped him. I end the game, Bruce 1st (lots of completed tickets), me 2nd, Katie 3rd with 106 to Michael's 104. Next morning, Michael mentions that he can finish 3rd if he changed a play. I love opponents who are still thinking about the game after it finishes. His three kids are well trained and can have a massive presence in future game cons if they wish. Hope to see his family next time.

Final table is Mega, 5er, one of my favorites. (I mention to Jeff and Trella afterwards that Big Cities is the most skill-dependent variation and encourage them to incorporate it next year.) Bruce, Katie, and I are joined by Dan and Lynn. I ask for random seating. I figure Dan's a ringer because he's been so quiet the whole time and finished 1st in nearly all his games. I get to go first again by virtue of my top qualifying position. This pretty much guarantees I will be the one to end the game again, based on my play style. Lynn, Dan, Bruce, Katie is the turn order.

Opening hand is:
(20) Vancouver - Montreal
(19) Los Angeles - Miami
(11) Portland - Phoenix
(11) Salt Lake City - Chicago
(09) Chicago - Santa Fe

The two Chicago tickets have strong synergy (just 10.5 turns to complete both for 40 points), thus they form the base of my position. Extending to Portland and Phoenix is attractive after that at 5.5 turns for an additional 30 points. After that, keeping both long tickets is not wise, so I toss out LA-Miami since Miami is just too far from anything else I have. Vancouver-Montreal was an aggressive keep at 8.5 turns for 33 points. But, I made a judgment call that it is superior to trying to draw more tickets (only LA-Chi, Portland-Pitts, or Denver-Pitts would have been materially better than Vancouver-Montreal).

After keeping four tickets, my initial vital paths are:
Montreal - Toronto
Toronto - Chicago
Chicago - Omaha
Omaha - Denver
Santa Fe - Phoenix
Seattle - Portland
Vancouver - Seattle

These vital paths contain four blues, four purples, four whites, and eight colorless. So, one attractive thing about my position is that I have no vital colors. However, I have a strong interest in playing Portland-Salt Lake City (otherwise I would be forced to play from Seattle-Helena, which is a much more popular path), so I key on blues. [*Denver-Santa Fe and Denver-Salt Lake City are not vital paths because I only need one or the other. Since I also wanted to keep a continuous train and cut through LA, Denver-Phoenix could have sufficed as well.] Blue was a bitch to get all game. Bruce and Katie drop Montreal-NY and Atlanta-Miami early, soaking up eight blues. I think I have just ONE blue by the time the deck shuffles first time. Uh oh. Fortunately, no one else takes any of my paths (though Lynn and I do a little dance with the Van-Sea-Port connections). Bruce cuts through the north, Katie the far south, and Dan via the StL-KC line. Second time through the deck though, people lay off the blue and I am able to build up a hand of them.

In the end, I take all of my vital paths, Denver-Santa Fe, cut through LA then up to SLC, and put my extra six at Seattle-Helena (using four wilds), end the game, and conclude with Montreal-Boston for a train of 43, winning longest train. I think I finish at 136 to Lynn's 124, so it was close. I win the 2009 title, adding it to the 2005 title, and decide to retire from this game on top. [Ha, take that Brett Favre!]

Dan said my path was predictable and easy to block. I agreed with him at the time as I didn’t want to make a fuss. While it was certainly predictable, it is harder to block than it looks. I was able to complete six of my vital paths very early. And most of my paths in the west were optional; I could just as easily have used other routes. About the only thing anyone could have done to mess with me was take blues. In my experience, ‘color blocking’ is not a strategy I see employed by many other players at cons. [Cheryl does it, which is why I avoid sitting to her left.]

I'll be at the Board Game room upstairs for next year, but I'll drop down to visit once in a while during the 2010 con. Thanks to the Puffing Billy group for running yet another fantastic tournament!

**At one point in the 'bad' Marklin game, Child Orsatz (children under 10 are not given names on their badges so that strangers will not be able to call them by name), looks at one of my plays and says (loudly) "Why'd you do THAT? That guy has nowhere to go!" Joe & Cheryl's six-year-old daughter. Analyzed/criticized my play. Correctly. Bad me.

Origins 2007 - Ticket to Ride tournament recap

Wed, 01 Jul 2009 05:03:31 GMT

Four qualifying categories (regular US, Europe, 1910, Marklin). Four firsts (218 on Marklin), one dead last (35 on Marklin after accruing -57 in tickets). First to run out of trains in all five games.

I have no idea what it takes to win Marklin consistently. Seems random to me.

Global Warming

Mon, 15 Jun 2009 06:07:57 GMT

I keep myself reasonably updated on scientific news. I watched, and thoroughly enjoyed, An Inconvenient Truth (2006). At the very least, it greatly increased my level of respect for Al Gore.

However, something about the movie always bugged me. Basically, I came away from the movie thinking that his most important chart (the one of carbon dioxide levels and temperature over the last several millenniums) DISPROVED global warming. That chart mostly illustrated two things. First, the level of CO2 is highly correlated to average surface temperature. Fine. But, there was no definitive proof in the movie that it was a causal relationship rather than just mere correlation. Second, and this is the part I don't get, why does no one seem to point out that the Earth was much, much warmer during several periods on the chart?? We're still here. Polar bears are still here (though they are very tired). It also appeared that there were other times when the temperature was RISING faster as well. The bottom line is that I came away from the movie thinking that man's influence on Earth's temperature was negligible. And, even if it were not, the Earth will survive our influence relatively unscathed. [Whether or not WE survive might be another matter.]

www.petitionproject.org. 30K Scientists (9K with PhDs) have signed a petition asking our government not to enter the U.S. into any international emissions treaties and more or less debunking global warming.

In any event, we have much, much more serious environmental problems. For one thing, many fish stocks have been fished to less than 10 percent of their original biomass.

For another, (I saw in a black & white photo that) elephant seals were once so large that a dead one lying on its side was TALLER THAN the big dudes that shot it and the big hats on top of their heads. By my very rough estimates, the largest elephant seals alive today are about a third the size of those in the pictures I saw. Think about that. An analogous situation would be for aliens to come to Earth and slaughter the largest humans they find for sport until, 50 years later, the largest 'healthy' humans were about 90 pounds. Not cool.

Obama asks Congress for $1.5 billion to fight swine flu

Wed, 29 Apr 2009 06:27:24 GMT

Seriously, what the hell is wrong with this country (and the people in it)? One and a half BILLION???

The regular flu kills about 4,000 'healthy' people PER YEAR. I'm willing to bet $10,000 right here that swine flu doesn't kill 4,000 in the US (with or without intervention) in the next ten years. Heck, I'm willing to bet it doesn't kill 400.

The last major flu panic was in 1976. The flu killed like two people. Twenty five people died from the vaccine that the government came out with to combat that 'epidemic.' Yes, I understand that presumes that the vaccine didn't in fact save hundreds or thousands of lives that might otherwise have been lost without the vaccine. But, it doesn't look like most people thought the vaccine was responsible for saving many lives. Oh, and the only two senators in Congress that voted against the vaccination program in 1976 were (drum roll) doctors. Why, oh why, are we listening to politicians rather than doctors on national health issues??

Never forget that the number one killer of people under 45 (by an ENORMOUS margin) is car-related accidents. If you don't die or suffer a serious injury from a car accident during your lifetime, the overwhelming probability is that you'll be old when you die.

Now everyone just chill and stop telling me to wear those ridiculous (and thoroughly ineffective unless you are already sick and want to keep from spreading it to someone else) face masks. Just don't run me over with your car and I'll be fine.

Yankee Stadium prices out fans

Fri, 17 Apr 2009 03:22:35 GMT

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/story/11637107

This story talks about how the debut game for the new Yankees stadium had an unusually silent crowd. I commented last May that Ohio State had effectively priced out its rowdiest fans (the students) and games are now attended by a far older, and subdued, crowd.

The ESPN article from a year ago mentioned that this does not happen as much in LA (where lots of people are rich). And you wouldn't have thought that this could happen in NY either. But, I guess that's the downturn in the financial sector taking its toll.

New show thoughts - Cupid

Thu, 16 Apr 2009 19:43:54 GMT

This new attempt at the 'god of love exiled to earth' dramady is better cast [Bobby Cannavale (37) and the comedically underrated Sarah Paulson (34)] than the short-lived 1998 attempt with Jeremy Piven and Paula Marshall. However, I still liked Miss Match (2003) better.

North Korea

Wed, 15 Apr 2009 06:50:05 GMT

How is our foreign policy so inept that North Korea (a country with an estimated per-capita nominal GDP of about $1,115 and dropping) is laughing at us militarily? Utterly embarrassing.

NFL Draft 2009

Wed, 08 Apr 2009 05:40:09 GMT

I've never seen a year with quite so little talent at the top. None of these guys would have been a top 5 pick (normalizing for age) in any other recent year.

I've raved about Michael Crabtree before, but I don't grade him nearly as high as a Randy Moss or even Larry Fitzgerald. He'll be a great player, just not a sure-fire all pro.

I'm surprised by Matt Ryan's success, he didn't look exceptional to me in college. I thought Joe Flacco would be the top QB of the 2008 class. I don't see any of this year's QBs doing anything meaningful in the near future.

I rate Malcolm Jenkins as an eventual regular starter; Beanie Wells, Marcus Freeman, and James Laurinaitis as backup caliber.

Continuing show thoughts - The Sarah Connor Chronicles

Sun, 22 Mar 2009 05:44:14 GMT

First, I never expected the show to last beyond this season, so I'm pleasantly surprised that it's on the air. Kudos to FOX for being the least annoying of the networks in terms of cutting shows.

TSCC is the most inconsistent show I follow. While many episodes are pretty weak, some episodes (more like some scenes) are absolutely riveting and brilliant. Overall, it is only an ok show. I still expect it cannot post the kind of ratings on Friday night to keep it alive.

But when TSCC hits the mark, it really brings it home. If it could do that consistently, it'd be one of the best series of all time. The settings of man versus machine, present versus future, good versus evil, right versus wrong, faith versus science, sacrifice versus the greater good, etc. have given the show a rich environment from which to tackle dramatic issues that range from the touching to the disturbing.

The latest episode, titled Last Voyage of the Jimmy Carter (name of a sub on the show), was phenomenal, the kind I replay immediately upon finishing the first viewing. While I don't recommend the show (it's not for everyone), I pray it stays long enough to give me more moments like the ones in this ep. Moments like these are why we watch TV.

National Debt

Thu, 19 Mar 2009 03:41:10 GMT

The national debt has now hit $11 trillion, about $36,000 per person. It is projected to be $16.2 trillion by the end of the current presidential cycle, about $52,000 per person. I'm just curious, what happens when/if this figure hits, say, $520,000 per person? This figure might get close to the average lifetime productivity per person. Does this mean we are all slaves to whoever owns our nation's debt? In any event, I have a hard time believing that the correct answer to the question is 'nothing.'

Scientists create laser gun to kill mosquitoes

Tue, 17 Mar 2009 06:17:59 GMT

http://www.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/03/16/mosquito.laser.weapon/index.html

Some dude who used to work for Bill Gates designed a laser that detects the beating wings of a mosquito and burns it on the spot. In theory, it could do a sweep and kill millions of mosquitoes in minutes. My favorite excerpt is:

'Responding to questions about any potential harm the laser could pose to the eco-system, Dr. Jordin Kare (lead scientist) said: "There is no such thing as a good mosquito, there's nothing that feeds exclusively on them. No one would miss mosquitoes," he said.'

Really? If we zapped all the mosquitoes off the face of the earth we don't think there would be any meaningful negative effect on the overall ecosystem? Anyone wanna bet?

GM, Chrysler ask for $21.6 billion more

Wed, 18 Feb 2009 04:54:32 GMT

This is my favorite line of the news story:

"The most important issue is not what the automakers are going to do to cut costs, but rather what the government is going to do to stimulate car sales," stated Jeremy Anwyl, CEO of car sales tracker Edmunds.com.

When did this country no longer care how well companies run? How can we still claim to be the world's capitalistic leader? When was the last time you've looked around the country and thought 'what this country needs is a bunch more cars??' I'm guessing, if anything, most people think this country needs FEWER cars.

I've said it before and I'll say it again: though it may take five years for the entire marketplace to figure it out, Ford has materially won this round of the US auto wars.

A note to my pro-Obama friends

Fri, 30 Jan 2009 22:51:59 GMT

This 'letter' posted by Bretigne Shaffer on Ron Paul's Campaign for Liberty site, http://www.campaignforliberty.com/article.php?view=5, captures almost perfectly my thoughts about the election, state of the country, and expectations for the following four years.

One area I disagree with is that I do not think the economy will be much worse in four years. Recessions typically run their course after a few years and I expect this one to be no different.

Ford

Tue, 25 Nov 2008 21:00:42 GMT

This March, I went back to Columbus, OH to attend a friend's wedding. I rented a Ford Focus because, well, it was the cheapest thing available. That weekend got get hit by one of the worst one-day freak snowstorms in history, one that dumped several feet of snow all over Ohio. (Pictures can be found on my Facebook page.) That Focus I was driving around town was a complete champ: great visibility, very roomy feel for a small car, great gas mileage, fantastic handling and control in some of the worst driving conditions I had ever seen. On top of that, I have been driving much less these last four years and have seen my driving skill materially diminish. That I was able to get around so easily is nothing short of amazing. I have not seen anything to suggest that the Focus is in any way Ford's "best" car, so I have to assume all of their cars are now of a quality not seen in the 80s and 90s.

However, a good reputation is hard to gain and easy to lose. Whenever someone asked me for an opinion on a car purchase and I brought up Ford, they pretty much laughed in my face. I'm here to say (as an owner of a Toyota, Toyota, and Mitsubishi) that the days of Japanese auto dominance (in the area of quality) are over. Ford, at least, has caught up. Anyone looking for a new car should give it a try. Right now, the quality of its cars are high while the prices are low because of the poor reputation it has built up.

ESPN's Gregg Easterbrook agrees, as evidenced by this snippet from his weekly football article:
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=easterbrook/081125
Sympathy for Detroit -- and a Fabulous Idea: The core reason the Big Three have lost so much market share in the past quarter-century is because they conceded the quality issue to Toyota, Honda and other international carmakers. In the 1980s and 1990s, a Honda Accord was so much better built than anything from Detroit, it wasn't funny. Today that has changed -- General Motors, Ford and Chrysler cars of the past five years have improved substantially in quality, to the point that many Detroit models are just as well-made as those produced by Japanese- or German-based marques. But reputation is hard to gain and easy to lose: Many consumers now take as given that Detroit builds shoddy products, and may not even test-drive the improved recent models. If you need a car, head to a General Motors, Ford or Chrysler showroom. Chances are you will be pleasantly surprised.

Rich Rod

Fri, 21 Nov 2008 19:06:33 GMT

CBS Sports' Dennis Dodd mentioned that Rich Rodriguez told prospect Terelle Pryor about his move to Michigan before he told his West Virginia players about it. That officially earns him the title of scum of the earth.

Social Networking changes everything

Wed, 19 Nov 2008 17:42:46 GMT

Whoa. I just found a French blogger (http://www.marc-aragon.net/article-20278554.html) who had a post a few months ago that referenced my options research from nearly ten years ago. I haven't worked in the industry for four years so I have no idea how he found that research. But WOW. This. Changes. Everything.

College Football Week 12 recap

Tue, 18 Nov 2008 15:19:48 GMT

I told a friend after Michigan's loss to Notre Dame that Michigan was a 3- or 4-win team this season, 4- or 5-win team next season, and an 8-win team at best in RichRod's third year. I was asking whether he thought that would be enough to get him fired after three years. My friend said that he thought RR would be cut after year three unless he won at least 10 games that year. I think that's a bit too high of a hurdle, I can't see them cutting ties quite THAT easily. The man did cost a bundle. In any event, I say there is no way they win 10 in 2010. His system just doesn't work without the right kind of QB. And that kind of QB has NEVER gone to Michigan before. Chad Henne, John Navarre, Drew Henson, Tom Brady, Brian Griese, Todd Collins, Elvis Grbac, Jim Harbaugh, etc. With all due respect to how good some of these guys were overall, they have the collective mobility of a Galapagos turtle. RR has two dual-threat QBs incoming but with disappointing initial measurables (180lb, 4.55 40) compared to Terelle Pryor (235lb, 4.40 40).

Ye gads, Washington St!? How bad to you have to be to be an eight-point underdog to a 0-10 team?! At home!

Predicted top 5 (pre bowls):
1) Texas/Texas Tech
2) Oklahoma
3) Florida
4) USC
5) Alabama

Many have Florida in the top two by season end. I dunno about that. I DO think they are the best team. But, neither the voters nor the computers have been punishing the Big 12 South guys very much for losing to each other. If Oklahoma beats TT, then whoever wins the conference championship (Texas or TT) can easily stay in the top 2. So, once again it is very likely that the championship game will not pair the strongest two teams. This is yet another classic case of the small but concentrated benefits (for the BCS) outweighing the large but widespread harms (to the viewing public). Let's face it, last year we were THIS close to having West Virginia versus Ohio State. Ugh. I wonder if ESPN would have liked to pay $125 million for that matchup.

No way Alabama beats Florida.

My conference rankings:
1) SEC
2) Big 12
3) ACC (I missed BC dismantling Notre Dame last week)
**small gap**
4) Big 10
5) Big East
**big gap**
6) PAC 10

College Football Week 11 recap

Tue, 11 Nov 2008 07:49:58 GMT

There has been a lot of talk about the success and proliferation of spread offenses in college football. You can do more with lesser athletes. It's harder to tackle in space. Etc, Etc. I've never heard these discussions mention what I think might be the dominant factor, the proliferation of the new-style artificial surfaces over natural grass. Most schools have given up on natural grass because it is costlier to maintain in the long term. Better traction helps the wide receivers and the defensive linemen, which in turn makes the quarterback have to go to quicker throws, which forces the receivers to start spread out. When I started watching football, the three dominant dropback passes were the 3-step, 5-step, and 7-step drops. I don't recall the last time I saw a formal 7-step dropback pass.

Florida just missed out on probably being the first SEC team in history to win five straight SEC games by 30 or more. They would have pulled it off if they hadn't pulled Tim Tebow after the first drive in the third quarter gave them a 42-0 lead.

Since their loss to Texas, Oklahoma has had 33 first-half drives not interruped by halftime: 21 TDs, 2 FG, 3 missed FG, 6 punts, 1 turnover on downs, no fumbles/interceptions. [That doesn't count the scores by their defense.] That's some monster offense. That works out to a pace of just under 80 points a game.

After watching them play Oklahoma State, I'm changing my mind on Texas Tech. They're damn good. They were never stopped by OKSt even once: Harrell lost two fumbles himself but scored a TD on every single other drive with success on every third (or fourth) down. And it's not like OKSt has a bad defense or anything. Even after getting shellacked by TT, OKSt is STILL nearly the top scoring defense in the Big 12. TT's offense is just that good. Oregon State's success against the defensive line of USC looked "gimmicky" to me, USC just seemed out of place a lot of times, but they rarely budged. TT's offensive line was manhandling OKSt's defense. Harrell's pocket presense is superb and he's my prediction for the most successful QB to come out of this year's draft. He could have gone out last year after getting some gaudy passing stats. But, the additional year of work at the college level has clearly paid off for him. He's a much more complete QB now. Michael Crabtree's not as good as Randy Moss, but he's the kind of receiver that you only see about once every four years or so.

The game between Oklahoma and TT in two weeks will be THE game of the year for my money. I know there has been a 'game of the year' practically each week, but trust me, this one's the right one. A likely Heisman winner and championship team will be determined there. I just don't know which of these monster offenses is going to win. Oklahoma seems to have some very key injuries to their defense, which will likely cost them.

Predicted top 5 (pre bowls):
1) Oklahoma/Texas/Texas Tech
2) Oklahoma/Texas/Texas Tech (I dunno how the Big 12's tiebreak works)
3) Florida
4) USC
5) Alabama

My conference rankings:
1) SEC
2) Big 12
**small gap**
3) ACC
4) Big 10
5) Big East
**big gap**
6) PAC 10

Regarding the ACC, I've never seen a conference start the year so badly then slowly creep back in the standings.

College Football Week 10 recap

Wed, 05 Nov 2008 07:25:03 GMT

The problem of identifying the 'best' team in the field of college football is an interesting logic puzzle. What you have is a system where some teams have gathered into these "groups" that play each other more frequently than they play teams outside of those groups. So, the issue of which team inside the group is the strongest is generally resolved. At least, it comes out to a satisfactory resolution frequently enough. However, trying to compare those teams across groups is very difficult. Quite simply, we do not have sufficient sample sizes upon which to make educated decisions. Thus, I propose that the only reasonable solution is to use the composite record of the entire group. If they don't want a playoff (which I am not really for anyway), then there is clearly only one way to accurately determine who the best teams are. It is first necessary to determine who the strongest groups, or conferences, are. Rank the six major conferences in order of non-conference record against the other five conferences. Then, the undefeated team(s) from the strongest get to go to the championship game. Next in line are one-loss teams from the conferences.

What a great week of finishes for Big 10 teams, each of which was involved in a nail biter. Indiana was driving, first and 10, from their own 44 yard line with less five minutes to play, trailing by three. They eventually turned the ball over on downs and couldn't stop the opponent from running out the clock. Michigan State kicked a 44-yard field goal with seven seconds remaining to take a one-point lead over Wisconsin. Incidentally, the MSU kicker had just made a 50 yarder on the previous drive. Minnesota was tied and driving to get into field goal range with 26 seconds left when the QB threw a pick six to Northwestern. Some say they were too deep in their own territory (29 yard line) and should have settled for overtime, but I like that they went for it. That decision turns out favorably more times than not. Purdue started their final drive against Michigan with only 1:20 on the clock. After driving to the Michigan 32 with 33 seconds reamining, they pulled off a good ole' hook and ladder from their bag of tricks to score the game-winning touchdown. And finally, Illinois' Juice Williams started from his own 20-yard line and took his team on an 11-play drive (starting with 10 straight passes) topped off by the game winning-field goal. He left just 24 seconds on the clock for Iowa.

Washington and Washington St were both shut out and each lost by at least 56. I don't think that has ever happened to the two biggest football schools in one state. WSU has been outscored 434 to 63 in its eight losses. I imagine watching them play each other on November 22 will be like watching porcupines mating - just plain ugly.

USC has now given up a total of 30 points in its seven wins.

Since losing two games early, West Virginia has outscored its last five opponents 82 to 7 in the second half. I was originally worried about their defense after what they gave up to Villanova, but they seem to have fixed their problems.

Preseason #1 (in many polls) Georgia has now trailed Alabama 31 to 0 and Florida 49 to 3. Can we please get rid of preseason polls? That change alone would solve half the annual BCS controversy.

Predicted top 5 (pre bowls):
1) Penn St
2) Oklahoma
3) USC
4) Texas
5) Florida

I still expect Alabama and Texas Tech to lose twice each.

My conference rankings:
1) SEC
2) Big 12
**big gap**
3) ACC
4) Big 10
5) Big East
6) PAC 10

College Football Week 9 recap

Tue, 28 Oct 2008 08:10:56 GMT

I'm getting about damn tired of OSU's completely uninspired, unimaginative offense. How can the coaching staff not have the offense prepared to run the two-minute drill, even with a freshman QB? One of the reasons the hurryup offense works is that the need to rush throws the defense off balance more than the offense. Additionally, the defenses are usually far more tired by the end of the fourth quarter than the offenses and suffer more from not being able to substitute. In this day and age, you have to be able to throw the defense off balance by either varying the tempo or the direction of the plays. [Analogously to baseball, the pitcher (offense) has to throw off the hitter (defender of the strike zone) by varying ball speed and location.]

The play of Terelle Pryor appears to be regressing to me, a disturbing trend seen in too many of OSU's recent QBs. Only Troy Smith and Craig Krenzel seem to have grasped the ridiculously overconservative passing style. Pryor is now throwing passes WAY TOO LATE, consistently underthrowing every long pass. If he were merely a BAD passer, he'd have a mix of overthrown and underthrown balls. But, it is nearly 100% underthrown. He's clearly taking too much time to make too damn sure a receiver is open. In his first two games, he was just letting them fly.

How often is Michigan 2-6 while Northwestern is 6-2. I'm just sayin'.

In three games this year, a team did not complete a pass: Army (against Eastern Michigan), Air Force (against Houston), and Navy (against SMU). All three won.

Week 9 picks: 0-0
Season: 1-5

Predicted top 5 (pre bowls):
1) Texas/Penn St
2) Penn St/Oklahoma
3) Oklahoma/USC
4) USC/Texas
5) Florida

If Texas beats Texas Tech, it will be the most incredible four-week performance in the history of college football. These four opponents are a combined 28-1 (not counting the losses to Texas). And that one loss was because two of the four had to play each other. Texas could be 4-0 against a packet of four teams that have NOT LOST TO ANYONE ELSE. That would EASILY make them one of the three strongest teams in history. Somehow, looking at their roster, it just doesn't feel like one of the best teams in history to me.

I think the SEC is going to get the screwed this year. I expect Alabama and Georgia to lose. Florida, even winning out, will not have enough steam to catch up. They'll place two into BCS bowls, but miss out on the big one.

My conference rankings:
1) SEC
2) Big 12
**big gap**
3) ACC (just went 2-0 against the SEC)
4) Big 10
5) Big East
6) PAC 10

College Football Week 8 recap

Tue, 21 Oct 2008 01:35:09 GMT

I like what I saw from #87 TE Lawrence Wilson. I hadn't really noticed him before even though he's a senior. He made a very key block to spring Pryor for 32 yards on the second play of the game. On the next play, he made a tremendous catch for a few yards. What impressed me wasn't the catch itself (sometimes a good catch or a easy drop is nothing but dumb luck one way or the other), but the way he literally looked like he was trying to RIP the ball out of the air. He was playing the game like he had something to prove. Gotta love that.

Unlike OSU's somewhat overrated linebacking corp, CB Malcolm Jenkins deserves his accolades. On the rare times his receiver made a catch, he's got very tight coverage. He made a great open field tackle. And on the play where DE Thaddeus Gibson returned the fumble for a TD, Jenkins made the tackle that forced the fumble, fell down, got back up, chased down Gibson (who had a good head start because he never had to leave his feet), and blocked Javon Ringer enough so he couldn't make the tackle. The stats will give the TD to Gibson, but that play was all Jenkins from beginning to end.

How predictable is OSU's offense? On third and one at the 50-yard line, MSU put 11 guys in the box...and stuffed the inevitable run. Shouldn't any college QB be allowed to audible if they see 11 in the box? In 2002, trailing Purdue in the fourth quarter and looking at fourth and one, QB Craig Krenzel threw a long bomb when his TE was covered. Something's changed, Tressel would never do that today. Pity.

Playaction passes (fake the run to draw in defenders then throw a pass behind them) only work if the defense respects an offense's ability to run the ball. For years the Indy Colts had some of the most effective playaction pass plays around because defenses had to focus so heavily on stopping Edgarrin James or Joseph Addai. Draw plays work similarly but in reverse. The QB pauses, pretending go through his progressions, before handing the ball off to the RB. This should freeze the linebackers momentarily to give the RB a little more running room. However, this misdirection is only effective if the defense respects the pass. OSU has thrown the ball for less than 145 yards in each of the last five games and only has three completions for more than 30 yards during that span. Seven QBs in the Big 12 do that almost every game. Who the hell fears OSU's passing game? OSU would be much better served with counters (where defenders are very likely to overpursue) and playaction passes than with draws. I think throwing in two or three counter sweeps and playaction passes a game would boost the offense tremendously.

The scary thing about Colt McCoy's numbers at Texas is that his backup, John Chiles, has a higher completion percentage, yards/attempt, TD/INT ratio, and of course QB rating. Now that Texas finally has a productive #1 RB, Chris Ogbonnaya, it has the year's top offense. (Tulsa, which is the only team that has scored more, doesn't count. On that note, the Tulsa QB, David Johnson, is on pace to finish his bowl game with 57.6 TDs, which will contend with Colt Brennan's record of 58 in a season.)

In USC's five wins this year, they have given up a total of 20 points. (Along the same lines, Boise State has only given up more than seven points once.) If teams were allowed to mulligan one game a year, USC would have like five of the last six championships. I know everyone is gushing over Texas right now but personally I think USC's defense shuts them down.

Week 8 picks: 0-0
Season: 1-5

Predicted top 5 (pre bowls):
1) Alabama/Florida
2) Oklahoma
3) Ohio St/Penn St
4) USC
5) Alabama/Florida

My conference rankings:
1) SEC
2) Big 12
**big gap**
3) Big 10
4) ACC
5) Big East
6) PAC 10

College Football Week 7 recap

Tue, 14 Oct 2008 00:07:25 GMT

The running back position is a position of physics. No matter how big/strong/fast you are, you're going to lose momentum for each defender you run into or have to change directions for. Thus, the most important trait for a good RB is vision. The earlier the RB makes an adjustment, the smaller the adjustment he has to make. However, vision isn't a readily quantifiable trait, so you just have to watch the player a bunch and judge that subjectively.

After that, a RB either needs to be freakishly strong, or freakishly agile. [I consider being big and/or fast to be third-tier traits. The most common misjudgements of RBs tend to be these last two traits, since weight and speed are the most visible and quantifiable.] Strength is easily measured, yet not commonly used in rating RBs. For example, Adrian Peterson (345 bench press, 530 squat) and Reggie Bush (335 bench press, 24 reps at 225 pounds) are freakishly strong. That's a big part of why those guys are better than other players with similar size and speed.

Michigan State's Javon Ringer is only recently starting to hit the national spotlight after gaining 200 yards on Notre Dame and on Indiana. I've had my eye on him after an early ESPN article detailed his improved strength numbers (he finished high school at 180 pounds with a 315 bench press but as a college senior is now up to 202 pounds with a "near 400 bench"). I think 400 is probably an exaggeration, but he very likely is at least in the 350+ range. Ringer should garner light Heisman attention (thought nothing meaningful unless MSU gets 11 wins or he breaks 2,000 rushing yards) and will be a legitimate threat against OSU this week. That kind of strength will be very hard for an average D-line and non-elite linebackers to contain. And, I'm always a fan of RBs that regularly carry the ball 35-45 times a game.

LSU gave up 51 to Florida. Granted, one of the TDs can be blamed on LSU's offense, but they still gave up five TDs and three FGs in eleven drives. Each scoring drive started in Florida territory and went for at least 35 yards. As I stated two weeks ago: "LSU's defense is nowhere near what it was last year and will likely keep them out of contention for the SEC Championship."

The two roughing calls on Oklahoma LB Travis Lewis were ridiculous. He barely tapped Colt McCoy each time. I've been hit harder walking the hallways of junior high school. Refs, this is football, not soccer. Colt, have some dignity, leave the flop jobs for the punters.

Week 7 picks: 0-0
Season: 1-5

Predicted top 5 (pre bowls):
1) Oklahoma
2) Alabama/Florida
3) Ohio St/Penn St
4) USC
5) Alabama/Florida

No changes this week despite Oklahoma's loss to Texas. Texas has six games remaining, two against 6-0 schools, two more against 5-1 schools. I don't recall any team in the last 15 years going undefeated against a slate that strong. Heck, I barely remember any school even FACING that tough of a schedule.

My conference rankings:
1) SEC
2) Big 12
**big gap**
3) Big 10
4) ACC (recovering nicely from early-season debacle)
5) Big East
6) PAC 10

No changes here either. Even though the SEC has a much better non-conference record, I think the top tier Big 12 teams could give the top-tier SEC teams a run for their money.